MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241542Z - 241815Z
   
   GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED IN
   THIS AREA...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS AND
   OCNL/MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO.
   
   15Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SERN ONT ACROSS WRN NY
   AND CENTRAL PA...SSWWD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA...MOVING EWD
   10-15 KT.  QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN ST LAWRENCE
   COUNTY NY SWD OVER NJ/PA BORDER REGION E ABE...THEN SEWD ACROSS
   S-CENTRAL NJ.  PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED EWD
   DRIFT...BUT LITTLE NET MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED.
   
   IN BETWEEN THOSE BOUNDARIES...DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IS INCREASING
   IN RESPONSE TO JUXTAPOSITION OF SEVERAL FEATURES/PROCESSES...
   1. SFC DIABATIC HEATING...AXIS OF WHICH IS EVIDENT FROM ERN VA NNEWD
   ACROSS ERN PA AND BGM-ART CORRIDOR.  PER VIS IMAGERY...THIS
   CORRESPONDS TO MOST PERSISTENT GAP IN CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS
   SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS CORRIDOR TOWARD HUDSON/DE VALLEYS.
   2. SFC MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS MID-70S F OFFSHORE
   MD...LOW 70S DELMARVA TO NEAR ABE...AND MID 60S CENTRAL NY TO ST.
   LAWRENCE VALLEY.
   3. LEADING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION THAT...WHILE WEAKER
   IN HEIGHT FIELDS THAN TROUGH FARTHER W OVER OH...CONTAINS MORE
   PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT...I.E. THERMAL TROUGH DRAWN ON 12Z 500-MB
   CHART.
   
   ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CINH IS NEGLIGIBLE ALREADY FROM SRN ADIRONDACKS SWD ACROSS ERN
   PA...WITH 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  AS HEATING CONTINUES BETWEEN
   FRONTAL ZONES...EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FAVORING MULTICELLULAR
   ORGANIZATION.  SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS ALSO...ESPECIALLY
   INVOF ERN FRONTAL ZONE WITH BACKED SFC FLOW AND LOCALLY ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR.  SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD
   EXTENT FROM THAT BOUNDARY ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY TOWARD WRN NEW
   ENGLAND AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS STABILIZES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   39697583 39937736 40987756 43307688 44327602 44877525
               44997479 44757436 42957408 40447398 39727410 39517439
               39697583