MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...PORTIONS OF SRN
   TN...FAR ERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241758Z - 242000Z
   
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPORADIC
   OCCURRENCES OF DMGG WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
   SVR HAIL. SHOULD ONE OR MORE CORRIDORS OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
   BECOME EVIDENT...THEN THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FRONT HAS EFFECTIVELY
   BEEN SHUNTED SWD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN AR BY THE COLD POOL ATTENDANT
   TO A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DIVING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF MO INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   FRONT...AUGMENTED BY THE COLD POOL CIRCULATION...IS ALLOWING
   CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE
   BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AMIDST MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000
   TO 3500 J/KG PER 12Z JACKSON AND BIRMINGHAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
   MODIFIED FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...STRONGLY AIDED BY RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- I.E. MEAN-LAYER MIXING RATIO OF 
   15.2 G PER KG WITHIN THE LOWEST 100 MB ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
   BIRMINGHAM SOUNDING. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...WITH SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE GREATER SVR THREAT WILL EMANATE FROM
   INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS...GIVEN DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
   AREA VWP DATA DEPICT MODEST MID-LEVEL WLY TO WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE
   REGION...WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS / MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTERS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE MERGING COLD POOLS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS
   COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   LAT...LON   33128814 33068983 33459127 34189139 34979066 35488992
               35518805 35508696 35298612 34908490 34568478 34088496
               33718547 33388644 33128814