MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...SRN MS...SERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 062209Z - 070015Z
   
   ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
   THE ISOLATED...GENERALLY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
   WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
   ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE
   INVOF THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
   SUBSTANTIALLY ENHANCED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   POSITIONED OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   FIELDS AND RECENT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THIS FEATURE...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND
   UPPER LEVELS WERE EVIDENT IN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA -- I.E.
   500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C AT LAKE CHARLES LA...SLIDELL
   LA...AND TALLAHASSEE FL. PRE-CONVECTIVE STEEP LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OWING TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING -- I.E. SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES -- ALLOWED A
   MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP GIVEN LOWEST 100-MB
   MEAN MIXING RATIOS AOA 16 G/KG NOTED IN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ALONG
   THE GULF COAST.
   
   THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY WILL FOSTER A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. NELY
   TO ELY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT IN THE 0.5-2-KM-AGL PER MOBILE AND SLIDELL
   VWP DATA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WWD TO SWWD PROGRESSION OF COLD
   POOLS...WITH WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS EVOLVING ALONG AND SOUTH
   OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR OWING TO GREATER COVERAGE OF
   REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG MERGING COLD POOLS. THE GREATEST
   CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL MS/LA INVOF A
   MAXIMUM IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON GPS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
   PRODUCT -- I.E. PWAT VALUES OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
   CONVERGENCE ZONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AGGREGATE EFFECTS OF THE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...HAS PUSHED
   SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND OVER SERN LA AND SERN MS...REACHING NEAR THE
   HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDOR IN SERN MS. VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WELL INLAND...AFFECTING AREAS
   AROUND MCCOMB AND HATTIESBURG. WHILE THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
   COULD EXTEND FARTHER NORTH BY A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES OWING TO
   THE NWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...LOW-LEVEL ENELY FLOW
   EVIDENT PER JACKSON VWP WILL SUPPORT WSWLY-DRIFTING COLD
   POOLS...LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.
   
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DMGG
   WINDS MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS OWING TO
   DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG. THIS THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE
   LOCAL AREAS OF BRIEF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OCCUR. CONVECTION
   WILL LARGELY BE DISORGANIZED OWING TO THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL COULD
   OCCUR DUE TO THE DEGREE OF AMBIENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE HOT
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL TO SOME
   DEGREE.
   
   ..COHEN.. 06/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   31308752 31188592 30788503 30268486 30058515 30088573
               30358665 30288865 29439029 29459208 29989281 30739271
               31469165 31568957 31308752