MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL SD / SERN ND / PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 062051Z - 062145Z
   
   MONITORING PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD ENEWD THROUGH SERN ND AND INTO
   W-CNTRL MN FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE 22-01Z
   PERIOD.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...CONDITIONAL UPON STORM
   INITIATION...WOULD INCLUDE PRIMARILY LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  A WW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE IF/ONCE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE ARE APPARENT.
   
   RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1003 MB LOW 30 MI SW MBG WITH THE
   PRIMARY FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MT/WY/SD BORDER ENEWD INVOF FAR. 
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ELONGATED
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
   IS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.  ONE
   IMPEDIMENT ATTM IS THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD.  A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO
   THIS IS THE DEPICTION OF A RUC ANALYZED WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
   MOVING NEWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS
   FEATURE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED STRONG DIABATIC HEATING ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY AND FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO
   INITIATE STORMS WITHIN AN ALREADY WEAKENED CAP.
   
   THE MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE SRN
   FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM
   INTENSIFICATION.  THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OWING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP A
   MOIST/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PBL...WITH PERHAPS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
   TORNADO NEAR THE WIND SHIFT AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH/LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   INCREASE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..SMITH.. 06/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   LAT...LON   45250123 45380164 45690192 45960187 47069677 46949610
               46659579 46359586 45250123