MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 062245Z - 070045Z
   
   WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS
   EVENING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT.
   
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS AN UPPER TROUGH
   ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NV AND UT INTO SOUTHERN
   ID...WITH IMPLIED HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT NOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD
   INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MT AS A CU FIELD/TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ID/WESTERN MT/FAR WESTERN WY. CONSISTENT
   WITH LATEST SUBJECT SURFACE ANALYSIS...CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN WY
   IN VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
   MOIST/EASTERLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS MT TO THE NORTH OF A
   ROUGHLY WEST-EAST SURFACE FRONT...WITH 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW
   EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. WHILE TSTMS WILL INITIALLY
   BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MT...WEAKENING
   BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MOIST AXIS
   ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST MT INCLUDING THE I-90
   CORRIDOR. MODEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   LAT...LON   46120642 45420663 44880754 45050850 45201037 45421111
               46991129 47451103 47571008 47000710 46120642