MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0310 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 292010Z - 292145Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
   STORMS INITIATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
   WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ON SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF
   TOWERING CUMULUS. THE TCU IS DEVELOPING ON THE WRN EDGE OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO
   3500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL BE A FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE FIRST CELL
   INITIATION BUT STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE NWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO
   CNTRL KS. AS STORMS DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT EVIDENT ON
   REGIONAL PRO FILERS WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VERY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ANY
   STORM THAT CAN INITIATE BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SFC-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACH
   50 DEGREES F IN MANY LOCATIONS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   36119882 37249846 38029796 38419761 38669789 38819815
               38699878 37210007 36530040 35930063 35250097 34810105
               34470056 34440007 34709961 35259904 36119882