MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NERN IND...NWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 395...
   
   VALID 292017Z - 292145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 395 CONTINUES.
   
   LONG-LIVED QLCS OVER SWRN LOWER MI TO N-CNTRL IND CONTINUES TO
   PROGRESS EWD WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED OF 45-50 KT.
   EXTRAPOLATING THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE QLCS TOWARDS THE DETROIT TO
   TOLEDO METRO AREAS BETWEEN 22-23Z. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KT
   WERE COMMON ACROSS NRN IL INTO NWRN IND IN/NEAR THE BOW APEX...WHILE
   MESOVORTICES AND NOTCHES IN REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE HAVE BEEN NOTED
   OVER THE PAST HOUR.
   
   THE GREATEST RELATIVE RISK OF A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH BRIEF
   EMBEDDED TORNADOES SHOULD LIE IN THE IND/MI/OH BORDER REGION AS THE
   BOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. MODIFIED 18Z DTX
   RAOB SUPPORTS A RESERVOIR OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS AXIS
   CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING NEAR 70 DEG F AND MLCAPE
   OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. WITH 30 KT SWLY WINDS AT 1 KM AGL SAMPLED IN
   THE DTX VWP...0-1 KM SRH OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
   OF BOTH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT.
   
   ANY SWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE QLCS WILL BE DETERRED BY A STRONG CAPPING
   INVERSION WHICH APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS CNTRL IND/W-CNTRL
   OH...EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVING MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S
   TO LOWER 60S.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...
   
   LAT...LON   42238556 42718517 42998415 43008309 42998238 42088234
               41498261 41308316 41168384 41058505 41168553 41448562
               42238556