MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291702Z - 291800Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM WRN NY
   ENEWD INTO ERN NY AND VT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AS STORMS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF WRN
   AND CNTRL NY WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. AS
   STORMS INITIATE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO THE EAST OF LAKE
   ERIE...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DUE TO MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES SHOULD INCREASE AS A WELL-DEFINED JET NEAR 700 MB MOVES
   INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WIND
   DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
   ACTIVITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   43707663 43217834 42787899 42427919 42127885 42067808
               42237690 42687459 43177314 44107312 43957515 43707663