MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY AND PA SWD INTO NRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388...
   
   VALID 272214Z - 280015Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388
   CONTINUES.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER CNTRL PA...WITH A BROAD AREA OF
   PRESSURE FALLS FROM MD INTO SRN NY WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING NEWD
   ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH
   HEATING AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...LENDING ITSELF TO
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPERCELLS NOW NOTED OVER PA...WITH MANY WELL
   DEFINED MESOCYCLONES. 
   
   GIVEN INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS WELL AS MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT WIND
   PROFILES...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IS HIGH.
   TORNADIC POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ISOLATED/BRIEF WITH 0-1 SRH ON THE
   ORDER OF 75-100 M2/S2. GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE...DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS HAIL...BUT MAY INCREASE IF STORMS BEGIN TO
   BOW WITH TIME.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
   
   LAT...LON   41327475 38597644 38287704 38497807 38837859 39777867
               41497780 42597686 43267577 43267475 43097409 42697397
               41327475