MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INTO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...
   
   VALID 272149Z - 272245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
   CONTINUES.
   
   DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WW AREA. 
   
   WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND APPEAR TO BE
   INHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS AN
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY PROGRESSES NEWD...INCREASING HEIGHT
   FALLS MAY SUPPORT REINVIGORATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. 18Z ALBANY NY AND GRAY ME SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM REMAIN...WHILE AREA VAD WIND
   PROFILE DATA REFLECTS WARM ADVECTION REGIME THAT WILL SUPPORT BRIEF
   ROTATION OF STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN A STRONGER UPDRAFT. THE PRIMARY
   AREA OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A STATIONARY FRONT NOW
   ORIENTED FROM ERN ME WSWWD TO WRN NY...THOUGH 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN PA INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 05/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   LAT...LON   41777451 43807475 46486855 44306852 41777451