MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN INDIANA...SRN OH...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN
   KY INTO WRN WEST VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 081702Z - 081900Z
   
   A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
   WARMING IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS
   REGION WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM IN THE FACE OF THE BUILDING UPSTREAM
   BROADER SCALE RIDGE...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS FROM
   WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   TURNS FROM JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST.  SO INHIBITION APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS
   FAR WEST AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVEN AS
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS ACROSS
   SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON
   THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE QUASI-
   STATIONARY FRONT APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG...PERHAPS
   LOCALLY HIGHER...BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  INITIATION OF STORMS
   SEEMS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18-19Z...AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   PROBABLE THROUGH 21-22Z.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   BENEATH 50+ KT 500 MB FLOW...SUPERCELLS AND AT LEAST SMALL
   ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE
   SOMEWHAT MODEST /UP TO AROUND 30 KT AT 850 MB/...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES SHOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND THEY APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE
   PRODUCTION OF HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE LARGE AND
   DAMAGING.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
   
   FORCING JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERN
   OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA COULD PROVIDE ONE FOCUS FOR STORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY GENERALLY
   APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP INITIALLY IN SCATTERED FASHION WITHIN
   A BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN
   KENTUCKY.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
   
   LAT...LON   39188703 39368482 39148265 38718113 37638149 36878337
               36778436 36808642 37368763 39188703