MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NRN OK...S CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 081926Z - 082100Z
   
   WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS. MAIN
   THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND CAN BE
   MAINTAINED.
   
   WHILE A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM
   DEVELOPING BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THE
   OZARK MTNS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH SWLY UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW INTO WRN OK MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT...IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS WRN OK...TO
   FOCUS DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND DEVELOP AN UPDRAFT OR TWO STRONG ENOUGH
   TO BREAK THE CAP.
   
   CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND
   21Z IN THE VICINITY OF KFSI. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED A DEVELOPING CU
   FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER TO NEAR KLTS TO NEAR KFSI. WHILE THIS
   CONVECTION REMAINED SHALLOW AS OF 1830Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED
   THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AND THE CAP WAS
   WEAKENING DUE TO SFC HEATING. SFC OBS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING
   OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
   80S. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THE MID 60S ON SELY SFC
   FLOW OF 10-15 KT. IN ADDITION TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL CLUES...HI-RES
   MODELS /HRRR AND WRF-NMM/ HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
   INITIATION LOCATION/TIMING. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLY...MODELS ALSO
   INDICATE A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS BEING
   GENERATED. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION COULD BE FURTHER N
   TOWARD N-CNTRL OK CLOSER TO A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH IS ALSO SERVING AS AN AREA FOR WEAK
   SFC CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS STRONGER HERE AND INSTABILITY
   IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CUMULUS
   IN THIS REGION REMAINS POOR.
   
   THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.5
   C/KM. STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SFC
   TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES AND
   RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 04/08/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36679812 37319749 37529708 37579672 37459626 37369596
               37069575 36769585 36409598 36139627 35419695 34849744
               34409797 34379839 34409878 34529903 34739917 35079919
               35439908 35919874 36679812