MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0294
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0141 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NWRN LA...FAR W-CNTRL MS...EXTREME SERN
   OK...NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 271841Z - 271945Z
   
   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH AN
   ONGOING BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN AR. ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND NERN
   TX...WHERE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED COOLING CLOUD
   TOPS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. 
   
   LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXITING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   /PER RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD
   TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. BROAD LLJ /SAMPLED AT AROUND 30 KTS
   ABOVE 1K FT/ AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO FOCUS AN AREA OF
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN AR...ATOP
   A POST-FRONTAL COLD STABLE LAYER. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG
   C/KM ARE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG
   /PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS/. RECENT GPS-IPW DATA INDICATE
   DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS ACROSS N
   TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
   AR...AND POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W ACROSS N/NERN
   TX. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS...HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
   APPROACHING/EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 03/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   31799640 32119693 32469707 33399675 33779635 33999469
               34139272 34049193 33689114 33429068 33139133 32339404
               31799640