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Mesoscale Discussion 295 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...SRN GA...NRN FL...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68...
VALID 271949Z - 272045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68
CONTINUES.
MIX OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SEMI-ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREATS. STRONGEST RISKS WILL SHIFT ACROSS SRN GA AND THE
CNTRL FL PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68 EXPIRES AT 21Z...BUT WILL EITHER BE LOCALLY
EXTENDED OR REPLACED WITH ANOTHER WATCH BY THEN.
WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SKIRT ACROSS ERN AL/NRN GA AT
MID-AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW DEEP-LAYER FLOW
ALONG IT/S SRN FLANK. MAINTENANCE OF 7+ DEG C PER KM H5-H7 LAPSE
RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THAT LAYER WERE CONTRIBUTING TO ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. EXPECT ZONE OF
STRONGER STORMS TO SHIFT SLOWLY ESE THROUGH SRN GA AND INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRESENCE OF 50 KTS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...STORM BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS MAY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL HELICITY FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP.
..RACY.. 03/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 31268680 31898422 32308241 32168113 32128045 31318115
31088157 30588237 30148363 30028481 30138553 30368670
30528800 31268680
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