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Mesoscale Discussion 293 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...SRN GA...SRN SC...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68...
VALID 271551Z - 271715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68
CONTINUES.
RISK OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MORNING BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG/N OF THE WAVY FRONT FROM SC
MIDLANDS WWD INTO CNTRL AL HAS CONTAINED BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH LARGE HAIL. LATE MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WAS HEATING STEADILY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS AND THE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL BE JOINED BY WARM-SECTOR BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE ROOTED IN THE DEEPENING
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXHIBITING MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG WITH A GOOD
PART OF THAT CAPE PROFILE BELOW MINUS 10 DEG C. COUPLED WITH 40-50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR...RISKS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL RESULT.
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS GENERALLY VEERED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE STRONGEST EFFECTIVE SRH LOCATED ACROSS
PARTS OF SE GA AND SRN SC. WHILE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE THE
LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
..RACY.. 03/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31538681 32678434 32458257 32508102 32518042 31858048
31298128 30858226 30518369 30028481 30138553 30438670
30938710 31538681
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