SPC AC 060730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO
   VALLEY/MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday
   across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi,
   Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including
   tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur.
   Some of the tornadoes may be strong.

   ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and
   Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
   An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
   on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward
   across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The
   primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN
   through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low
   across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some
   southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS
   Valley.

   A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent
   from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the
   OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very
   favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is
   forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense
   bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe
   convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late
   Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as
   ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly
   destabilizing warm sector.

   Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large
   hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging
   winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection
   spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A
   moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the
   mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level
   shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will
   be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear
   environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the
   favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat
   is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the
   lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians
   through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening.

   Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such
   area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the
   cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
   with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough
   extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe
   threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly
   isolated/marginal.

   ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z