SPC AC 190730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential is expected from the
southern Plains to the upper Great Lakes. The highest concentration
of severe storms is expected from eastern Kansas to southwest
Wisconsin. Damaging gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are
possible through Monday night.
...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper shortwave trough is forecast to lift
northeast from the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on
Tuesday. As this occurs, a belt of 50-70 kt 850-700 mb southwesterly
flow will overspread the Lower MO Valley to Upper Michigan. At the
surface, low pressure will deepen and shift northeast from eastern
NE/KS during the morning, to Lake Superior by Wednesday morning. A
dryline is forecast to extend southward across western OK into
southwest TX and will develop east through the afternoon. Further
north, a cold front will surge east across IA/northern MO during the
evening, becoming positioned from Upper Michigan to northeast IL,
then southwest to central OK/northwest TX by Wednesday morning.
...Lower MO Valley to Upper Great Lakes...
A warm front will lift north across southern MN into northern WI
ahead of the surface low during the day. To the east of the low and
eastward-advancing cold front, a broad warm sector with mid/upper
60s F dewpoints is expected. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
will overspread this moist boundary layer, aiding in moderate to
strong destabilization. Initial supercells may be possible, posing a
risk for all severe hazards. However, given strong forcing, both
large-scale and along the advancing cold front, upscale growth into
one or more linear bands/segments is likely. This may transition the
main severe risk to swaths of damaging gusts by evening.
...Eastern KS/Southwest MO into OK/Northwest AR...
Forcing will be weaker with southward extent into the southern
Plains vicinity. However, a very moist and unstable airmass will be
in place amid supercell vertical wind profiles. More isolated
convection may develop along the dryline during the afternoon in
Oklahoma, and along the southern extent of the synoptic cold front
across eastern KS. This activity will pose an all-hazards risk, with
some potential for upscale growth during the evening, especially
with any convection moving out of eastern KS into southwest MO.
...Northwest TX vicinity...
A conditional threat will exist southward along the dryline. Forcing
will remain weak and capping may ultimately preclude thunderstorm
development. Nevertheless, strong heating along the dryline and at
least modest low-level convergence may be sufficient to allow for a
storm or two during the late afternoon/early evening.
..Leitman.. 05/19/2024
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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