SPC AC 060558

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday from the
   Mid-South northeastward into the Ohio Valley. A few tornadoes, large
   to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper cyclone centered over the northern Plains should
   slowly occlude on Tuesday. A convectively augmented mid-level
   shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across
   the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the day. The primary
   surface low over ND should weaken/occlude through the day, while a
   separate, weak low is forecast to develop northeastward across the
   Upper Midwest in tandem with the shortwave trough. A cold front will
   sweep eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley through the day before
   decelerating, while a warm front simultaneously lifts northward
   across the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes.

   ...Mid-South/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
   There is relatively high confidence that a band of strong to severe
   convection will be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday
   morning over parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley. This convection
   will probably weaken though the morning as it encounters a less
   unstable airmass into the OH Valley. But, it may still pose some
   threat for damaging winds. With somewhat steepened mid-level lapse
   rates overspreading a moist low-level airmass, moderate to locally
   strong instability should develop with diurnal heating across much
   of the warm sector in the OH/TN Valleys.

   The effect of the early-day convection complicates the potential for
   a greater severe threat. Still, eventual regeneration along the
   morning convection's outflow and/or leading edge seems probable into
   Tuesday afternoon. Strengthening mid-level flow on the nose of an
   enhanced (50-70 kt) mid-level jet will aid in the development of
   strong deep-layer shear, which will support organized
   updrafts/severe convection. Overall mode may be somewhat messy, with
   a mix of supercells and multicell clusters possible. Regardless, any
   persistent supercells should be capable of producing large to very
   large hail. Low-level shear associated with a 25-35 kt
   south-southwesterly low-level jet appears sufficient to support
   updraft rotation and a threat for a few tornadoes, mainly across the
   OH Valley. If thunderstorms can congeal into one or more clusters,
   then a greater threat for severe/damaging winds would be realized.
   This convection should spread into the western parts of the central
   Appalachians Tuesday evening before eventually weakening.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough should
   foster the development of weak instability through Tuesday
   afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent will likely encourage the
   development of low-topped thunderstorms across parts of WI and
   vicinity. Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with the more
   robust cores, and a brief tornado or two also appears possible.

   ...Virginia/North Carolina...
   Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop
   Tuesday afternoon across parts of VA/NC, generally along/east of a
   weak surface lee trough. Sufficient forecast instability and shear
   should be present to support some threat for hail and strong winds
   with any thunderstorms that form. The overall severe threat is
   expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South...
   Weaker forcing with southward extent across the lower MS Valley/Deep
   South suggests a more conditional severe threat compared to
   locations farther north. But, at least isolated strong to severe
   thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially
   along a weak surface trough extending into parts of MS/AL.

   ...Central Texas...
   A highly conditional threat for thunderstorms is apparent across
   parts of central TX Tuesday afternoon along/near a low-level
   moisture gradient/sharpening dryline. While large-scale ascent aloft
   appears negligible, if any thunderstorms can form and persist, they
   could become severe given a strongly unstable airmass. This scenario
   appears too uncertain to add low severe probabilities at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024

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