(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060858
SPC AC 060858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday...
Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement showing an upper
trough moving gradually eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley and
Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. A weak surface low
initially over the OH Valley should likewise advance eastward
through the day while slowly deepening, and eventually reaching the
Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A moist low-level airmass should
be in place across the Southeast, and extend northeastward into
parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. Weak
to moderate instability should develop ahead of the front with
daytime heating. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is
likewise expected to slowly increase through the day with the
eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should
gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon,
especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains.
Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms occurring has increased
enough to add a broad 15% severe area from GA to the Mid-Atlantic.
A separate area of potential severe thunderstorms has also become
apparent across parts of TX on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude
shortwave trough should advance northeastward from northern Mexico
across the southern Plains through the day, providing ascent needed
to initiate convection along a surface front/dryline. A very moist
and unstable airmass will likely be present south/east of these
boundaries, and deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe hail and
damaging winds.
In between the two 15% severe areas, some severe threat should also
exist across the Southeast. However, the effect of a possible
overnight/early Thursday morning MCS may complicate destabilization
and related severe potential later in the day. Have therefore not
included the central Gulf Coast States in a 15% severe delineation
at this time.
...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday...
Limited severe potential should become increasingly confined to the
immediate Gulf Coast and FL from Friday into the upcoming weekend,
as a cold front continues southward. By Sunday into early next week,
there are some indications in guidance that low-level moisture may
begin to return northward across the southern Plains. However, model
spread is large at this extended time frame, and predictability
remains low.
..Gleason.. 05/06/2024
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