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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West-central Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 955 PM
until 400 AM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify tonight along a cold front
over west-central Texas. These storms will likely pose a risk of
large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts as they track
east-northeastward across the watch area. A tornado or two cannot
be ruled out in the southern part of the watch.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles southwest of
Junction TX to 45 miles east northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 15 SEVERE TSTM TX 110355Z - 111000Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
85SW JCT/JUNCTION TX/ - 45ENE ABI/ABILENE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /17N DLF - 47ENE ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 29640235 32660060 32669733 29649919
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 15 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 15
VALID 110925Z - 111000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW DRT TO
55 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 25 SW BWD TO 25 SSW SEP TO 30 WSW MWL.
PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 15 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED
IN TIME AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND 10Z. OTHERWISE, A NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
..KERR..02/11/24
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-083-137-143-171-193-265-267-299-319-333-385-411-429-
111000-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA COLEMAN EDWARDS
ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON
KERR KIMBLE LLANO
MASON MILLS REAL
SAN SABA STEPHENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 15
VALID 110825Z - 110940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW 6R6
TO 60 N DRT TO 40 E SJT TO 40 W BWD TO 20 W BWD TO 45 W MWL.
..KERR..02/11/24
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-083-093-133-137-143-171-193-265-267-271-299-307-319-
327-333-363-385-411-429-435-463-465-110940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN COLEMAN
COMANCHE EASTLAND EDWARDS
ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON
MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO
REAL SAN SABA STEPHENS
SUTTON UVALDE VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 15
VALID 110730Z - 110840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE 6R6 TO
60 ENE 6R6 TO 10 ESE SJT TO 40 W BWD TO 20 ESE ABI TO 35 ENE ABI.
..KERR..02/11/24
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-083-093-095-133-137-143-171-193-265-267-271-299-307-
319-327-333-363-385-411-413-429-435-451-463-465-110840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND
EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE
HAMILTON KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
PALO PINTO REAL SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER STEPHENS SUTTON
TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 15
VALID 110630Z - 110740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW SJT
TO 40 NNE SJT TO 10 E ABI TO 35 NE ABI.
..KERR..02/11/24
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-171-193-235-265-267-
271-299-307-319-327-333-363-385-399-411-413-429-435-451-463-465-
110740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
CROCKETT EASTLAND EDWARDS
ERATH GILLESPIE HAMILTON
IRION KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
PALO PINTO REAL RUNNELS
SAN SABA SCHLEICHER STEPHENS
SUTTON TOM GREEN UVALDE
VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 15
VALID 110600Z - 110740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S BGS TO
15 NNE ABI TO 55 SW SPS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 120
..DEAN..02/11/24
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-171-193-235-265-
267-271-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-385-399-411-413-417-429-431-
435-441-451-463-465-110740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE
CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND
EDWARDS ERATH GILLESPIE
HAMILTON IRION KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO
REAL RUNNELS SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR
TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 15
VALID 110445Z - 110540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..02/11/24
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-137-143-151-171-193-235-
253-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-385-399-411-413-417-
429-431-435-441-451-463-465-110540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE
CONCHO CROCKETT EASTLAND
EDWARDS ERATH FISHER
GILLESPIE HAMILTON IRION
JONES KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
NOLAN PALO PINTO REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING
SUTTON TAYLOR TOM GREEN
UVALDE VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (40%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.