Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Upper Michigan
Minnesota Arrowhead
Central and Northern Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front over
western Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. These storms will track
eastward through the early evening, posing a risk of hail and
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast
of Grand Marais MN to 35 miles south of Mosinee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Upper Michigan
Minnesota Arrowhead
Central and Northern Wisconsin
Lake Superior
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a cold front over
western Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota. These storms will track
eastward through the early evening, posing a risk of hail and
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast
of Grand Marais MN to 35 miles south of Mosinee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 257 SEVERE TSTM MI MN WI LS 182030Z - 190300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNE GNA/GRAND MARAIS MN/ - 35S CWA/MOSINEE WI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /34WSW YQT - 44N DLL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
LAT...LON 48158902 44278866 44279068 48159119
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 257 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 257
VALID 190225Z - 190300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW OSH TO
35 NW GRB.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 257 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
19/03Z.
..KERR..05/19/24
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC037-075-135-137-190300-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLORENCE MARINETTE WAUPACA
WAUSHARA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 257
VALID 190120Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CWA TO
35 WNW IMT.
..KERR..05/19/24
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC037-041-075-097-135-137-190240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLORENCE FOREST MARINETTE
PORTAGE WAUPACA WAUSHARA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 257
VALID 190030Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE VOK
TO 30 NE IWD TO 25 SW CMX.
..KERR..05/19/24
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-053-061-071-131-190140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON ONTONAGON
$$
WIC037-041-067-069-073-075-083-085-097-125-135-137-141-190140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLORENCE FOREST LANGLADE
LINCOLN MARATHON MARINETTE
OCONTO ONEIDA PORTAGE
VILAS WAUPACA WAUSHARA
WOOD
$$
LSZ247-190140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 257
VALID 182345Z - 190040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N VOK TO
25 NNE IWD TO 30 SW CMX.
..KERR..05/18/24
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-053-061-071-131-190040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON ONTONAGON
$$
WIC037-041-067-069-073-085-097-125-141-190040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLORENCE FOREST LANGLADE
LINCOLN MARATHON ONEIDA
PORTAGE VILAS WOOD
$$
LSZ247-190040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 257
VALID 182250Z - 182340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ASX TO
20 SW GNA TO 40 NNW CMX.
..KERR..05/18/24
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 257
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC013-053-061-071-083-131-182340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARAGA GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON KEWEENAW ONTONAGON
$$
WIC003-019-037-041-051-067-069-073-085-097-099-119-125-141-
182340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND CLARK FLORENCE
FOREST IRON LANGLADE
LINCOLN MARATHON ONEIDA
PORTAGE PRICE TAYLOR
VILAS WOOD
$$
LSZ121-147-148-150-240-241-242-243-244-245-246-247-263-182340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS BEYOND 5 NM FROM MAINLAND
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI
PORTAGE LAKE TO HURON ISLAND MI TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE
CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYAL NATIONAL PARK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.