Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS RAPIDLY INCREASING OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST OK IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS BURN
OFF...AIDING IN STORMS BECOMING SURFACE-BASED. VERY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 165 TORNADO KS OK 141545Z - 142300Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25ESE GAG/GAGE OK/ - 55NW CNK/CONCORDIA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /28ESE GAG - 77S OBH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 36130087 40099998 40099677 36139783
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 165 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 165
VALID 142125Z - 142240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 531
..GARNER..04/14/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-039-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-
069-077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-
145-147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-
201-142240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DECATUR DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HARPER HASKELL
HODGEMAN JEWELL KINGMAN
KIOWA LANE LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MEADE MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS
PRATT RENO REPUBLIC
RICE ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SMITH
STAFFORD TREGO WASHINGTON
$$
NEC087-145-142240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129-
149-151-153-142240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRANT GREER
HARMON HARPER JACKSON
KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 165
VALID 142035Z - 142140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 530
..GARNER..04/14/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-039-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-
069-077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-
145-147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-
201-142140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DECATUR DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HARPER HASKELL
HODGEMAN JEWELL KINGMAN
KIOWA LANE LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MEADE MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS
PRATT RENO REPUBLIC
RICE ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SMITH
STAFFORD TREGO WASHINGTON
$$
NEC087-145-142140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129-
149-151-153-142140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRANT GREER
HARMON HARPER JACKSON
KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 165
VALID 141930Z - 142040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 529
..COHEN..04/14/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-039-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-
069-077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-
145-147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-
201-142040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DECATUR DICKINSON EDWARDS
ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY
FORD GOVE GRAHAM
GRAY HARPER HASKELL
HODGEMAN JEWELL KINGMAN
KIOWA LANE LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MEADE MITCHELL
NESS NORTON OSBORNE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PHILLIPS
PRATT RENO REPUBLIC
RICE ROOKS RUSH
RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT
SEWARD SHERIDAN SMITH
STAFFORD TREGO WASHINGTON
$$
NEC087-145-142040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW
$$
OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-055-057-059-065-075-093-129-
149-151-153-142040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GARFIELD GRANT GREER
HARMON HARPER JACKSON
KIOWA MAJOR ROGER MILLS
WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 165
VALID 141825Z - 141940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/14/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-
077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-145-
147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-201-
141940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRAY
HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
TREGO WASHINGTON
$$
OKC003-045-047-053-059-093-151-153-141940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 165
VALID 141735Z - 141840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..04/14/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-
077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-145-
147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-201-
141840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRAY
HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
TREGO WASHINGTON
$$
OKC003-045-047-053-059-093-151-153-141840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 165
VALID 141650Z - 141740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 523
..COHEN..04/14/12
ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...GLD...GID...OUN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 165
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC007-009-025-027-029-033-041-047-051-053-055-057-063-065-069-
077-081-083-089-095-097-101-105-113-119-123-135-137-141-143-145-
147-151-155-157-159-163-165-167-169-171-175-179-183-185-195-201-
141740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBER BARTON CLARK
CLAY CLOUD COMANCHE
DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD
GOVE GRAHAM GRAY
HARPER HASKELL HODGEMAN
JEWELL KINGMAN KIOWA
LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON
MEADE MITCHELL NESS
NORTON OSBORNE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PHILLIPS PRATT
RENO REPUBLIC RICE
ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL
SALINE SCOTT SEWARD
SHERIDAN SMITH STAFFORD
TREGO WASHINGTON
$$
OKC003-045-047-053-059-093-151-153-141740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER MAJOR
WOODS WOODWARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
High (80%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.