Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DELAWARE
NORTHEAST MARYLAND
WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 405 AM UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
UTICA NEW YORK TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 244. WATCH NUMBER 244 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 405 AM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 246...WW 247...WW
248...
DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PIVOTING NEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY. STRONG WIND
PROFILES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHILE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AOA 70 F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL
MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL EMBEDDED BOWS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 249 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 280805Z - 281400Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NE UCA/UTICA NY/ - 30SW DOV/DOVER DE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /65ENE SYR - 33NNW SBY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
REPLACES WW 244..DE MD NJ NY PA CW
LAT...LON 43547381 38817494 38817679 43547580
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 249 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 249
VALID 281225Z - 281340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...ALY...BGM...OKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-281340-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-281340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC007-009-011-015-019-033-037-041-281340-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND
GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON SALEM
SUSSEX WARREN
$$
NYC001-007-017-023-025-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-071-077-093-
095-105-107-111-281340-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ORANGE OTSEGO SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN TIOGA
ULSTER
$$
PAC011-015-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-115-
127-131-281340-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS
CARBON CHESTER DELAWARE
LACKAWANNA LEHIGH LUZERNE
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA PIKE SUSQUEHANNA
WAYNE WYOMING
$$
ANZ430-431-281340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 249
VALID 281050Z - 281140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..04/28/11
ATTN...WFO...PHI...ALY...BGM...OKX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DEC001-003-005-281140-
DE
. DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX
$$
MDC011-015-029-035-041-281140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE CECIL KENT
QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT
$$
NJC007-009-011-015-019-033-037-041-281140-
NJ
. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND
GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON SALEM
SUSSEX WARREN
$$
NYC001-007-017-023-025-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-071-077-093-
095-105-107-111-281140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO
CORTLAND DELAWARE FULTON
GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER
MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA
ORANGE OTSEGO SCHENECTADY
SCHOHARIE SULLIVAN TIOGA
ULSTER
$$
PAC011-015-017-025-029-045-069-077-079-089-091-095-101-103-115-
127-131-281140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS
CARBON CHESTER DELAWARE
LACKAWANNA LEHIGH LUZERNE
MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON
PHILADELPHIA PIKE SUSQUEHANNA
WAYNE WYOMING
$$
ANZ430-431-281140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.