SPC AC 240520

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
   EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
   northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and
   evening.

   ...Southern Plains...

   An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the
   building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10
   to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to
   meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the
   surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into
   northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also
   will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance
   suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be
   ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is
   uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend
   across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially
   where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries
   will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the
   afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30
   kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where
   stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could
   support sporadic strong gusts.

   ...OH Valley...

   An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada
   and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft
   will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a
   surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move
   across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest
   boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest
   destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain
   fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few
   stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small
   hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.

   ..Leitman.. 04/24/2025

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