SPC AC 031730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE ARKLATEX
   INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from
   central Texas across the ArkLaTex and into the lower Ohio Valley
   Friday and Friday night. The greatest threat for tornadoes, large
   hail and damaging winds will be from the ArkLaTex across western
   Arkansas, including potential for strong to potentially intense
   tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough, centered across the Southwest and northern New
   Mexico, will start to shift east on Friday. As this occurs a broad,
   strong low-level jet will develop across eastern Texas and into
   Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This strengthening lower
   tropospheric flow will aid in the northward advancement of a warm
   front, located from central Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley at
   the beginning of the period, to eastern Oklahoma an near the MO/AR
   border by 00Z Sat. This reorientation of the frontal boundary should
   be favorable for supercells with the potential for large hail (some
   2+ inch), damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes (some potentially
   EF3+). 

   ...ArkLatex to Western Arkansas...
   As a warm front lifts north across Arkansas through the day, a very
   unstable environment (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will develop from the
   ArkLaTex into western Arkansas as temperatures warm into the mid 80s
   with dewpoints in the low 70s. Some weak convection may maintain
   along the frontal zone in eastern Oklahoma during the morning and
   early afternoon. However, more robust convective development is not
   anticipated until mid-afternoon when height falls start to
   overspread the region, and the influence of the entrance region of
   the upper-level jet increases ascent. In addition, most high
   resolution guidance indicates a local area of low pressure may
   traverse the frontal zone to near northwest Arkansas by 21Z. The
   combination of these factors, which have decent agreement among 12Z
   guidance, points toward multiple supercells along the frontal zone
   during the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. These
   supercells, in an environment featuring 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE and
   0-1km SRH ~400 m2/s2, will support the potential for strong to
   intense tornadoes. Messy storm mode could limit the longevity of any
   of these supercells/tornadoes, but even with limited duration, the
   environment supports a tornado threat.

   A more conditional long-track tornado threat, which would also bring
   greater opportunity for EF3+ tornadoes, exists east of the frontal
   boundary. Synoptic forcing ahead of the boundary is relatively weak,
   but very strong instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) is forecast with
   minimal inhibition across the warm sector. Therefore, more discrete,
   open warm-sector supercell development is possible, but will be more
   dependent on mesoscale details which will become more clear in the
   Day 1 timeframe.

   ...Missouri into the Ohio Valley...
   Storm mode and destabilization will be a lot more unclear farther
   northeast along the frontal zone from southern Missouri and into
   western Ohio. Multiple rounds of ongoing storms and new development
   are anticipated through the period in a strongly sheared
   environment, but storm motion will likely keep the majority of
   storms on the cool side of the boundary. Any storms which can stay
   along or south of the boundary will pose some severe weather threat
   with all hazards possible, particularly farther southwest, closer to
   the richer low-level moisture. However, hail, and perhaps some wind
   gusts will be possible with any storms in this region. 

   ...West Texas to Central Texas...
   Strong elevated instability (2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) is forecast
   across central Texas and into portions of west Texas Friday night
   and into early Saturday morning. This instability, combined with
   very strong shear (70-80 knots per NAM forecast soundings), will
   support elevated supercells capable of large hail (perhaps 2+")
   early Saturday morning as the low-level jet reintensifies and
   orients into central Texas ahead of the approaching mid-level
   trough.

   ..Bentley.. 04/03/2025

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