SPC AC 251944

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR
   EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A concentrated area of severe thunderstorms is forecast centered on
   the Texas South Plains during the late afternoon and evening.  A few
   tornadoes will be possible, as well as large to giant hail being
   probable with the more intense supercells.

   ...20z Update...
   Tornado risk probabilities have been increased to 10% (with
   significant hatching) within a focused corridor across parts of the
   TX South Plains/Caprock. Latest radar imagery shows convective
   initiation well underway along a residual outflow boundary to the
   northwest of the Lubbock, TX area. Additional convective towers are
   noted in visible imagery to the east of the developing storm,
   lending high confidence in supercell development within the coming
   hours. These cells will likely propagate to the east/southeast along
   residual boundaries into a region with mid 60s dewpoints (moisture
   that is above the 90th percentile for west TX in late April) and
   east/southeasterly low-level flow. Weak 1-3 km winds have been
   recently noted in regional VWPs that will favor a very large hail
   threat through late afternoon; however, increasing flow within the
   925-850 mb layer after 00z will result in low-level hodograph
   enlargement and promote an increasing tornado threat (including the
   potential for a strong tornado) heading into the evening hours prior
   to upscale growth later tonight. See the previous discussion below
   for additional details.

   ..Moore.. 04/25/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025/

   ...Far Eastern NM...TX Panhandle...West TX...
   Upper ridging over the High Plains will be downstream of a western
   U.S. upper trough.  In the low levels, a frontal zone has pushed
   south into the TX Panhandle with a diffuse outflow boundary
   extending from east TX west-northwestward into the Low Rolling
   Plains/Caprock vicinity.  Farther west, a dryline extends south over
   eastern NM with a seasonably moisture-rich airmass (60s surface
   dewpoints) located south and east of the aforementioned boundaries. 
   Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with strong
   heating expected through the late afternoon.  

   Model guidance shows 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid-late
   afternoon as convective inhibition gradually erodes near the
   boundaries.  Forecast soundings show southeasterly to southerly flow
   veering to 20-30 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, and further
   increasing to 70-kt in the upper levels.  The magnitude of buoyancy
   and shear will strongly favor intense supercells initially.  Large
   to giant hail (up to 2.5 to 4.0 inches in diameter) will likely
   accompany the stronger supercells.  A tornado risk will probably
   focus in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and peak during the
   early evening, when a strengthening of low-level flow is expected. 
   Upscale growth into a cluster is possible this evening with the
   hail/tornado risk gradually transitioning to mostly a wind risk
   late.  

   Farther south into the Permian Basin, a couple of intense supercells
   are possible later this afternoon into the evening.  Large to giant
   hail appears to be the primary severe hazard, although a tornado is
   possible during the early evening.  

   ...Lower MS Valley/Southeast into TN and OH Valley...
   Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop
   from the OH Valley south into the lower MS Valley within a
   moist/weakly unstable airmass.  Some modest enhancement to low-level
   flow and hodographs over parts of the OH Valley may result in a few
   transient organized cells.  Despite moist profiles and limited lapse
   rates, localized wind damage (45-55 mph gusts) may accompany the
   stronger storms for a few hours this afternoon.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z