SPC AC 020549

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST
   KS...SOUTHERN IA...AND NORTHERN MO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over southern Iowa,
   northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas between about 2 to 9 PM CDT.
   Damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail are the expected
   hazards.

   ...Synopsis...
   The broad mid/upper trough from the Prairie Provinces to the
   Intermountain West will shift east into far northwest Ontario to the
   Upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple embedded shortwave impulses, some
   of which are convectively enhanced, will progress within and ahead
   of the trough. The most prominent of which for severe potential is
   approaching the WY Rockies, and will track across the Mid-MO Valley
   to the Upper MS Valley by early Wednesday. A belt of enhanced
   mid-level southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts will amplify ahead of
   this impulse and spread over the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley by late
   afternoon.

   ...Central KS to the Mid-MS Valley...
   A swath of decaying convection should be ongoing at 12Z this morning
   from parts of the Mid-MO Valley to the western Great Lakes.
   Differential boundary-layer heating amid pronounced insolation
   occurring to the south of morning outflow/cloud debris will yield a
   strengthening baroclinic zone from central KS northeastward into
   southeast IA. With minimal capping, renewed surface-based convection
   should occur in the early afternoon along this effective front. The
   aforementioned amplification of mid-level southwesterlies later in
   the day will aid in sustaining organized upscale growth, with
   embedded supercell and bowing structures possible. This appears to
   be most favored from northeast KS across northern MO and southern
   IA. Swaths of strong to severe gusts and a few tornadoes are
   possible. The northeast extent of the severe threat should abruptly
   diminish east of the MS River into IL, as convection eventually
   outpaces the north/south-oriented buoyancy plume. This should result
   in a progressive north-to-south weakening of the severe threat after
   dusk over the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valleys.

   ...Central/southern High Plains...
   At least isolated severe hail and wind will be possible from late
   afternoon into mid-evening, within a post-frontal upslope flow
   environment from the Raton Mesa to the Black Hills, and a hot/deeply
   mixed boundary layer ahead of the front in the OK/TX Panhandle
   vicinity. A more favorable corridor for supercell potential is
   evident in southeast CO to southwest KS where a plume of richer
   low-level moisture will reside north of the trailing front. There
   should be some cooling near the mid-level trough to slightly steepen
   mid-level lapse rates for a conditional large-hail threat, in
   addition to severe gusts. Convection in this region should weaken
   after dusk.

   ..Grams/Squitieri.. 07/02/2024

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