Mesoscale Discussion 0631
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...184...

   Valid 042047Z - 042245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183, 184 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of severe
   thunderstorm watch 183 and tornado watch 184 over west/southwest
   Texas. The greatest severe weather potential will likely be focused
   along and north of the I-10 corridor for the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...20 UTC surface observations and visible/radar imagery
   continue to show a cold front migrating south across western TX into
   a moderately to strongly buoyant air mass. Towering cumulus denoting
   substantial lift is noted along the boundary, which will maintain
   the potential for additional thunderstorm development heading into
   the late afternoon hours. Just behind/along the front, a
   well-organized supercell over Winkler County, TX appears to be
   displaced slightly to the cool side of the boundary. 
   Although this cell may be slightly undercut by the front,
   temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s may still support sufficient
   surface-based buoyancy based on RAP forecast soundings.
   Northeasterly surface winds will help elongate low-level hodographs,
   promoting favorable helicity for storm organization and large/very
   large hail production and some tornado threat as the cell tracks
   east. 

   Ahead of the front, discrete supercells that initiated off of the
   Davis Mountains continue to mature and become better organized as
   they migrate deeper into the warm sector. Daytime heating combined
   with elongating deep-layer hodographs ahead of an approaching upper
   disturbance will promote an increasingly favorable environment for
   severe convection. Consequently, further intensification of these
   cells is anticipated in the coming hours with the potential for very
   large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) and tornadoes. The expectation
   for the next couple of hours is that the greatest severe threat will
   be associated with (and downstream of) both the post-frontal Winkler
   county supercell and the open warm sector convection.

   Further to the northeast closer to the I-20 corridor (Big Country),
   clustered convection developing along the front will pose a severe
   hail risk, but the potential for destructive storm interactions may
   modulate the overall severe threat.

   ..Moore.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30390357 30950391 31470394 32050371 32270342 32530249
               32699954 32589892 32139876 31599886 30939921 30479986
               30300061 29880146 29870211 29990268 30110316 30390357