Mesoscale Discussion 1596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0335 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132035Z - 132200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat may accompany any
   multicell or supercell that can develop and become sustained this
   afternoon. Given the spatially and temporally constricted nature of
   the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts agitated CU/attempt
   at convective initiation over the Black Hills of South Dakota,
   driven by afternoon peak heating, some orographic lift, and the
   approach of a 500 mb vort max (per 20Z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast
   soundings depict a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 700 mb,
   suggesting that any storms that can become sustained will likely be
   high-based in nature. Forecast soundings show hodographs of modest
   length and curvature (hence 30 kts of effective bulk shear) that
   will gradually enlarge/lengthen through the afternoon, supporting
   multicells and perhaps a few splitting supercells. While some MLCINH
   remains, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is present, which could support
   strong enough storms to potentially produce large hail and severe
   gusts, especially if a sustained supercell structure can
   materialize. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated,
   so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44510381 44570372 44580358 44520329 44430291 44240236
               44120217 43840198 43620194 43480228 43460281 43540342
               43630355 43940380 44510381