Mesoscale Discussion 1586
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

   Areas affected...the northern/central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122144Z - 122315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic and highly localized severe wind gusts will be
   possible within dry microbursts from northeast Wyoming and western
   South Dakota into northeast Colorado through sunset.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based, low-topped convection is underway
   adjacent to the Big Horns, north of the Black Hills, and into
   northeast Colorado along a lee thermal trough. Surface-temperature
   dew point spreads where convection is initiating are around 50-55 F,
   indicative of a deeply mixed boundary layer over the High Plains. As
   such, MLCAPE values are largely around the 500-1000 J/kg where
   convection is forming, but do increase with eastern extent towards
   the lower plains. This initial activity is expected to struggle to
   substantially deepen given the airmass, yielded a predominant dry
   microburst wind threat across the region for the first few hours of
   development. Moderate northwesterly speed shear within the
   cloud-bearing layer may promote small hail production in the
   strongest cores, which could augment downdrafts as they fall.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44860624 45350520 45210270 44800166 43000163 40150186
               39950224 40010280 40490305 43140425 44080647 44860624