Mesoscale Discussion 1575
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS...southern
   IA...northern MO

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

   Valid 102204Z - 102330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind may
   persist into the early evening. There is some potential for
   redevelopment northwest of the ongoing storms.

   DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low will continue moving
   south-southeastward across Iowa into this evening. Strong to
   occasionally severe storms that earlier developed across southwest
   IA are moving into northern MO late this afternoon. Storms have
   struggled to remain organized thus far, likely due to marginal
   effective shear (generally 20-30 kt). However, moderate buoyancy
   (MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg) and seasonably cool temperatures
   aloft could support occasional hail potential with the strongest
   updrafts. Rather extensive outflow has developed in the wake of
   these storms, which could support an isolated damaging-wind threat
   with any stronger storms along or just behind the gust front. 

   Farther northwest into eastern NE, there is less influence from
   convective outflow, with moderate buoyancy expected to persist into
   early evening. While the surface pattern is rather nebulous,
   additional development is underway across the northwest portion of
   WW 519, and also just to the west of the watch, which could pose a
   threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. Trends will continue to
   be monitored for the potential need of local watch expansion to the
   north and west of WW 319.

   ..Dean.. 07/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   41029776 41489601 40999502 40639341 40799184 40229147
               39679146 39319247 39499482 39629604 39809672 40089727
               40209756 41029776