Mesoscale Discussion 0238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

   Areas affected...portions of east TX and southwest LA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56...58...

   Valid 030317Z - 030515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56, 58
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe line of thunderstorms continues to progress
   eastward across TX. Convective trends are being monitored for
   possible WW issuance downstream in portions of southwestern LA.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing QLCS and attendant severe-weather threat
   continues to progress eastward through TX. This system has developed
   a broad, strong cold pool (around 10-13 F negative temperature
   perturbations observed at KILE/KGTU/KRYU) and produced damaging wind
   gusts and large hail in central/south TX. Some areas of stronger
   low-level rotation have been observed -- particularly as the line
   passed near KEWX/KGRK -- in association with localized cold-pool
   surges and/or embedded supercell structures. Low-level hodographs,
   derived from KEWX/KRGK VWPs, elongated rather quickly as the line
   approached; 0-1-km shear increased from around 20 to 30 kts with
   0-1-km SRH around 400 J/kg at both sites. These favorable kinematics
   have helped support surface-based QLCS maintenance, and severe
   hazards, despite gradually increasing MLCIN. The MLCIN increase
   appears to be driven by increasing 850 mb temperatures, evident in
   RAP forecast profiles and supported by recent 00z radiosonde
   observations (e.g., LCH and vicinity).

   Some uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution during the
   next few hours. In the short term, a steadily strengthening
   low-level jet is expected to help offset larger MLCIN, supporting a
   continued severe threat in WW 55/56/58. Further severe weather
   production downstream in the delineated area is possible given
   increasingly favorable kinematics, but might be somewhat tempered if
   temperatures aloft continue to increase and storm coverage
   diminishes (as depicted in latest HRRR/WoFS guidance). Current radar
   observations of a surging cold pool and diminishing reflectivity
   structures support continued overall weakening of the system.
   Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW
   issuance downstream.

   ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/03/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29829236 29609359 29359527 29389620 29659652 30269636
               30819605 30959515 31019424 31129354 31279300 31319250
               31179197 30779186 30169188 29829236