Mesoscale Discussion 2042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

   Areas affected...far southeast AL...far southwest GA...FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

   Valid 150528Z - 150730Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for a tornado will probably continue into
   the overnight with stronger supercells.  The primary limiting
   factors for tornado potential may be weak low-level lapse rates and
   the mid-level disturbance over the MS Valley and associated strong
   forcing for ascent becoming increasingly displaced from the region. 
   Convective trends will be monitored for a possible small tornado
   watch located to the east of Tornado Watch 589.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a north-south zone of storms near
   Apalachicola and a squall line on the front over the western FL
   Panhandle extending southwest into the Gulf.  The airmass over the
   FL Panhandle is moist and marginally unstable 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   according to the latest RAP soundings when modified for current
   surface conditions.  Despite adequately large low-level hodographs,
   water-vapor imagery suggests the strongest large-scale forcing for
   ascent is becoming increasingly displaced from the northeast Gulf
   Coast tonight.  Furthermore, the relatively weak surface to 1.5 km
   lapse rates are likely not favoring robust low-level updraft
   acceleration, and consequently stronger low-level mesocyclones,
   other than transient storm-scale rotation.  However, with these
   competing factors will probably maintain some risk for a tornado and
   localized damaging gusts into the overnight hours.

   ..Smith.. 12/15/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30538652 31278544 31348476 30858421 30168405 29868446
               29628516 30088555 30378638 30538652