Mesoscale Discussion 2038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0703 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

   Areas affected...portions of the Florida panhandle southwest Georgia
   and southern Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 589...

   Valid 150103Z - 150300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 589 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is forecast to gradually increase across
   western Florida and southern AL over the next couple of hours.
   Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. Additional
   supercells may move onshore from the northern Gulf later this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Across the FL Panhandle and southern AL, convection has
   increased in coverage and intensity over the last hour with a few
   supercells showing sustained low-level rotation. Short-term model
   guidance suggests this trend will likely continue as the axis of the
   low-level jet shifts eastward with the main shortwave trough
   tonight. Area VAD/VWPS already hint at a 10-15 kt strengthening in
   the wind fields showing increasing shear in the lowest 2-3 km.
   Regional IR satellite trends also suggest deepening convection in
   the northern Gulf, ahead of the main convective line further west,
   may also evolve into supercells as it moves onshore in the next
   couple of hours. With the moist, unstable (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
   strongly sheared environment already favorable for supercells (ESRH
   250+ m2/s2), additional storms and increasing deep-layer shear
   suggest an uptick in the risk for supercells capable of damaging
   gusts and a few tornadoes in the next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons.. 12/15/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31628601 31538515 31358474 31168448 30728416 30378398
               30168384 30048382 29898395 29788431 29698462 29558502
               29698535 29868551 30088592 30218646 30178740 30538749
               31038715 31378676 31568629 31628601