Mesoscale Discussion 1407
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

   Areas affected...much of central into eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

   Valid 070101Z - 070300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 445. Severe hail (some and winds should continue into the
   evening hours. A brief tornado still cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous multicells/supercells have become established
   across central into eastern MT over the past couple of hours. While
   the widespread nature of the storms might result in storm mergers
   and enough adequate overturning to reduce storm longevity to a
   degree, uncontaminated air still bears 8+ C/km low and mid-level
   lapse rates. As such, any updrafts that can mature may still support
   a large hail threat, including brief bouts of 2+ inch hail given
   both the aforementioned lapse rates and 35+ kts of effective bulk
   shear present (especially in central into northeast MT). Given the
   steep low-level lapse rates/dry boundary layer, severe gusts are
   also possible. In addition any supercell structure that can
   favorably traverse an outflow boundary may also produce a brief
   tornado.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46541159 47961171 48431145 48681074 48990934 49000652
               48760522 48310419 47680419 46370529 45680592 45290637
               45190695 45400833 45951002 46541159