Mesoscale Discussion 1406
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

   Areas affected...much of central into eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445...

   Valid 062253Z - 070100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 445. Supercells capable of producing severe winds and large
   hail should persist into the early evening hours. A brief tornado
   also is possible with the more robust, long-lasting supercell
   structures.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells continue to develop or persist
   across portions of central into eastern Montana, with MRMS mosaic
   MESH data suggesting that several supercells have a history of
   producing 1.5-3.0 inch hail for the last couple of hours. These
   storms are thriving in an environment characterized by 8+ C/km
   tropospheric lapse rates amid 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
   (driven by strong 850-500 mb veering with height). Severe hail and
   wind should continue to accompany the more intense supercell
   structures through the evening hours, especially across northeast
   MT, where greater storm coverage is expected. Backed low-level flow
   may also encourage some transient periods of low-level rotation with
   the longest lived storms. A brief tornado was reported earlier
   across central MT and an additional brief tornado cannot be
   completely ruled out.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   48221313 48931061 48970800 49000506 48670417 47950403
               47160474 45860603 45230687 44970777 45060897 45201023
               45441133 45841211 46141256 47211305 48221313