MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0546 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 142246Z - 150045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...WITH LESS CHANCE OF SEVERE
   COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NM.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
   PROPAGATE SWD OUT OF THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
   WERE MEASURED AT GUY. RADAR INDICATES THE STORM IS CURRENTLY
   PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. CU FIELDS S OF THIS COMPLEX INDICATE
   A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WIND PROFILES
   SUGGEST A CONTINUED SWD MOTION. HOWEVER...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AS
   THESE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO GROW UPSCALE.

   TO THE W...OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS WERE FAVORING THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN IN NM...AND HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS THEY
   TRAVEL EWD. SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR WITH THE CELL OVER ERN SAN
   MIGUEL COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ONE OF THE FEW NM STORMS SHOWING A
   PERSISTENT HAIL CORE. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED OVERTURNING OF THE AIR
   MASS...TIME OF DAY...AND LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET
   SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   EVENING.

   ..JEWELL/WEISS.. 08/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36410157 36380103 36070084 35190074 34630108 34380139
               34350241 34460354 34640444 35390488 35970472 36340439
               36570365 36850323 36870275 36710232 36410157