MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151909Z - 152030Z

   CORRECTED TO CHANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO THIS AFTERNOON IN SECOND
   PARAGRAPH

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
   TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
   INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED THE VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB 1500 J/KG DUE TO
   WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MOIST
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP HAS PROMOTED THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...IN THE
   WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INLAND
   FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT
   DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR
   SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER
   LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE
   AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
               30628162