MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DOWN EAST MAINE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141945Z - 142045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERAL FACTORS SHOULD MINIMIZE STORM INTENSITY WITH
   CONVECTION CROSSING PARTS OF DOWN EAST MAINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
   PV ANOMALY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED BAND. THIS BAND LIES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ORIENTED NEARLY
   PARALLEL TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT
   PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS. 

   WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS AT LEAST MODEST IN MAGNITUDE PER VWP
   DATA...STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE BORDER OF ERN
   MAINE FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS:
   /1/ THE INFLUX OF ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN A NOTABLE DRY
   INTRUSION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MAY PROVE DELETERIOUS TO UPDRAFT
   MAINTENANCE OWING TO DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESSES...
   /2/ WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CHARACTERIZING STORM INFLOW OWING TO
   HIGHER STATIC STABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE MARINE LAYER CLOSER TO THE
   COAST -- ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
   70 NEAR THE COAST -- SHOULD MINIMIZE BUOYANCY...
   /3/ LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN THE
   MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY MARGINAL...AT
   MOST.

   ALSO...CAR VWP DATA AND SFC OBS INDICATE ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
   PLACE...WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS FROM VERTICAL MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT IN ENHANCING SFC GUSTS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE EWD/ENEWD.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 08/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...

   LAT...LON   44726826 45416769 45316732 45006701 44576720 44446774
               44406828 44726826