MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...FAR SW KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE...NW TX
   PANHANDLE...NE NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141929Z - 142100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE
   MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND WW ISSUANCE IS
   NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR THE CO-KS
   STATE LINE ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD
   FROM NE NM INTO SERN CO. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG RANGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS
   COMBINED WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL
   WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
   CELLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
   AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MATURES AND NEW CELLS INITIATE IN THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM.

   ..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35340288 36200242 36690183 37260164 38150167 38480191
               38590233 38570284 38260320 37880327 37340344 36860381
               36370439 35760468 35210476 34720457 34500414 34540371
               34740313 35340288