MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141850Z - 142015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL TX AS
   CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. IF THE STORMS CAN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED
   CLUSTER...WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
   FRONT FROM NORTH OF DEL RIO EWD TO NEAR THE AUSTIN AND COLLEGE
   STATION AREAS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE MID 60S
   TO LOWER 70S F WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F. THIS IS
   CREATING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES WHICH COMBINED
   WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE
   CONVECTION PULSE IN NATURE SUGGESTING ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE
   CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

   ..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30249545 30809506 31099515 31239542 31589676 31769755
               31669820 31159956 30900012 30560130 30260166 29960167
               29640149 29410075 29589920 29719833 29739732 29709648
               29829591 30249545