MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AL...SRN GA...FAR SRN
   SC...NRN/CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141818Z - 142045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST WILL BE LOW
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...INSOLATION IN MANY AREAS S OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
   EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL AL TO CNTRL GA AND SRN SC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
   DIABATIC SFC HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND
   90 DEGREES. AND...WITH RICH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING PW VALUES FROM
   1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES PER GPS DATA AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
   70S...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS
   THE REGION PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
   INHIBITION REMAINING...PULSE/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
   TO BLOSSOM FROM AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
   FIELD PER VIS IMAGERY...AND BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. INLAND-ADVANCING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES MAY FOCUS
   CORRIDORS OF GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

   WHILE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH WILL BE AIDED BY WATER-LOADING
   PROCESSES...WEAK MID-LEVEL LASE RATES WILL LARGELY LIMIT UPDRAFT
   INTENSITY...AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LACKING WITHOUT THE
   INFLUENCE OF A MORE SALIENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS SHOULD YIELD
   ONLY LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST. FURTHERMORE...A
   QUIESCENT HEIGHT/FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
   WILL MINIMIZE DEEP SHEAR -- AS EVIDENT IN VWP DATA. AS SUCH...STORM
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 08/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   29718515 30308620 30488713 31188698 31978589 32238449
               32608235 32648052 32298046 31938088 31028138 29878125
               28768096 27978114 27948226 29228275 29778362 29718515