MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN TX AND WRN/SRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141715Z - 141945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY RESULT IN A FEW INSTANCES OF DMGG
   WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBS REVEAL A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM S-CNTRL AL/MS
   WWD INTO E-CNTRL TX. THE 12Z RAOBS AT LCH AND LIX INDICATE DEEP
   MOIST-NEUTRAL PROFILES S OF THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE INHIBITION AND
   AMPLE PW -- VALUES OVER 2.2 INCHES. DIABATIC SFC HEATING OWING TO
   AREAS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE -- PER VIS IMAGERY -- IS FOSTERING
   MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE INTERSECTING AREA
   /1/ TO THE S OF THE FRONT... AND /2/ TO THE SW OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
   INDUCED FROM THETA-E DEFICITS ACCOMPANYING PERSISTENT
   CONVECTION/LACKING INSOLATION FROM CNTRL LA TO NEAR AND N OF LAKE
   PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS.

   CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE MCD AREA...COMBINED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
   NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WILL SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY ENSUE AMIDST A
   FAIRLY QUIESCENT BACKGROUND SFC PRESSURE AND LOW/MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   PATTERN AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK FLOW PER LCH/LIX VWP DATA. WITH THE
   CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE DISORGANIZED...A MORE WIDESPREAD
   SVR THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY
   BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS OWING TO ABUNDANT
   WATER LOADING.

   ..COHEN/KERR.. 08/14/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29669315 29589461 30729483 31559437 31389341 29979124
               29348906 28838942 28869036 29309153 29669315