MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0926
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 241734Z - 241930Z
   
   AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
   OVERALL MARGINAL/SPORADIC NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW...WITH A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
   ISSUANCE BY 20Z.
   
   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY COMMENCED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN VT THROUGH ERN/CNTRL NY INTO NRN PA WITHIN A BROADLY
   CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
   BECOME ROBUST GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEG C/KM
   AT 700-500 MB SAMPLED IN REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS. DESPITE AREAS OF
   SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
   WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN MODERATE EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
   MARGINAL AND PERHAPS YIELD ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CORES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   LAT...LON   40247430 40377586 41067697 41727672 42557602 43557418
               43817228 43647120 43147080 42407089 41547153 41267212
               40687347 40557409 40247430