MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0925
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241718Z - 241845Z
   
   STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN OK AND NW TX OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
   
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH A
   DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR WRN OK INTO WEST TX.
   THE DRYLINE IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EWD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPANDING FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM I-40 IN WRN OK
   SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO IN WCNTRL TX. AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
   OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP WEAKENS...RAPID CELL INITIATION IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. AS THIS OCCURS...A 50 TO 65
   KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WILL CREATE
   STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS
   STORMS INTENSIFY...VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
   WILL BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS IN
   PLACE ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK. AS THIS FEATURE
   STRENGTHENS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES. WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES INCREASING INTO THE
   450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE...LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
   
   LAT...LON   36359864 35549906 34789972 34469989 33560003 32959970
               32809942 32789855 33159793 33799761 34609702 35689660
               36409722 36629823 36359864