MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0927
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241759Z - 241930Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS AS STORM
   INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR
   TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY 19Z TO
   20Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN ERN CO TO
   THE NW OF A SFC LOW IN THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPANDING EWD ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL
   KS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN AND
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE EXIT REGION
   OF A WELL-DEVELOPED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL PLAINS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND
   ENHANCING LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND VERY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A 35 TO 45 LOW-LEVEL JET
   IN NRN OK IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NWWD INTO WCNTRL KS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS
   MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL KS
   WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39649909 39480061 39310161 38370199 37570135 37460033
               37649882 37809796 38619760 39279775 39729820 39649909