MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0846 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...NRN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 080146Z - 080415Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING...BUT COVERAGE OF SEVERE SHOULD NOT WARRANT A WW.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY PRIOR TO SUNSET SHOWED TCU ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
   ERN AR INTO ERN TX. MOST OF THE CU AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WAS FLAT
   AND INDICATIVE OF CAPPING. INDEED...AREA SOUNDINGS AT 00Z REVEAL A
   CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB. HOWEVER...THE SHV SOUNDING ALSO
   SHOWED A VERY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. GPS PWAT READINGS ARE
   AVERAGING NEAR 1.50-1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER
   READINGS AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.  
   
   ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND FOCUSED IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG
   THE FRONT...SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE DRY CAPPING LAYER SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR STORMS TO ERUPT FROM ERN TX INTO MS. LARGE INSTABILITY AS
   WELL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
   HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURSTS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/08/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...
   
   LAT...LON   30289694 30779584 31279490 31669438 32769332 33419289
               33919250 34409164 34539091 34229019 33688980 31619187
               31149242 30349383 29939508 29819596 29809643 29989686
               30289694