MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0817 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OH...WRN NY AND NW PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143...
   
   VALID 080117Z - 080215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS ECNTRL OH AND NW PA
   THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 143.
   
   A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING FROM NE OH EXTENDING SWWD INTO
   SERN IND VERY CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF A 45-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING
   EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY SUGGESTING THE
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ORGANIZED. IN SPITE OF WEAK INSTABILITY
   ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE
   WILMINGTON OH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH
   THE STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES MAY
   ALSO FAVOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD
   LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   LAT...LON   41357904 40567994 39938091 39378211 39718331 40228324
               41048194 42178023 42727959 42917909 42917870 42657842
               41967864 41357904