MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO/PARTS OF WRN-CENTRAL IL/FAR SERN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161236Z - 161330Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED TSTMS
   THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS NERN MO EWD INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AND
   FAR SERN IA.  WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING...OR BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON...AS POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN SURFACE
   BASED INHIBITION FOR ACTIVITY TO ROOT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
   
   12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM FAR SERN
   NEB INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO AND THEN SEWD INTO SRN IL.  A 30-35 KT
   SWLY LLJ EXTENDED INTO NWRN MO THIS MORNING WITH WAA ALONG THE NOSE
   OF THIS JET AIDING IN ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN MO INTO
   FAR WEST CENTRAL IL.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED WITHIN AN E-W AXIS OF
   MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO
   40 KT SUPPORTING LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN THAT ACTIVITY IS
   ELEVATED AT THIS...GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE FOR ISOLATED HAIL. 
   MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING AT SPRINGFIELD IL /ILX/ SUGGESTS SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR TSTMS
   TO BECOME SURFACE BASED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   39739249 40009300 40509278 40719156 40638897 40308900
   39628894 39378962 39519121