MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN-SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161043Z - 161145Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
   TRACKING SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB.  ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR
   WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
   SERN NEB/FAR SWRN IA AND NWRN MO WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS THREAT.  
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONGER TSTMS LOCATED OVER
   EAST CENTRAL NEB FROM NANCE TO MADISON COUNTIES...WITH AN APPARENT
   MCV CENTERED OVER ANTELOPE COUNTY.  THUS FAR...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   BEEN TRACKING SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH EXTENDED FROM
   NORTH CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN IA PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND HAS
   PRODUCED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 35-41 KT.  EARLY MORNING SURFACE
   ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER IN JEWELL
   COUNTY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO FAR SERN NEB AND THEN
   ESEWD THROUGH NRN MO TO SRN IL.  GIVEN LOCATION OF THE STRONGER
   TSTMS N OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND 08Z RUC SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NEB
   INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ROOTED AROUND 750-800 MB...
   ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STRONGER
   CORES. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35
   KT SUPPORT THIS HAIL THREAT.
   
   LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF 35 KT SWLY LLJ WHICH EXTENDS INTO SERN
   NEB/SWRN IA AND ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV ARE RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE
   AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER TSTMS OVER
   EAST CENTRAL NEB.  ALTHOUGH THE TSTM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO
   ORGANIZE INTO A BOW AT TIMES...THE NEW DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION AND LIMIT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
   
   ..PETERS.. 08/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   41029775 41309754 41819732 42149719 42299708 42009559
   41449375 40789384 39879405 39789482 40159633 40679779